In 1980, Alvin Toffler predicted that the Third Wave economy (based on electronics and computer technology), that had replaced Second Wave industralism ( which had originally replaced First Wave preindustrial agricultural economies) ,would use fewer workers than Second Wave manufacture-based industrialism.
In addition he predicted increasing institutional decentralization and "de-massification"- economic systems,including the labor markets, would "break into smaller,more varied pieces." The old top-heavy organizations based on aggregating people into large groups for education and commerce ( large retail stores, universities,corporations), according to Toffler, will diversify under the transformative effect of the new Third Wave civilization.This is not change by degrees but in kind.
Washed Away By the Third Wave?
The enhanced mobility of financial capital via the power of global investment results in the distribution of employment to other countries--a de-massification of jobs.
India has long been the preferred choice for businesses investing in call centre operations due to the low cost of labor. But now ,as reported in the Washington Post ( October 15,2011), U.S companies,(as well as Indian businesses), are now locating their call centre operations from India to the Phillipines and Malaysia.
The wave-like quality of this is obvious: the original influx of business that had "washed up" capital into the Indian economy --enough to create a new middle class--is now receding. Instead, the same "wave" of resources are 'flooding" other Asian countries -potentially "washing away" those original jobs from the Indian economy.
It is not your grandfather's"1984"
George Orwell , in his famous novel,saw the future of technology as being centralized in the hands of a powerful elite--a classic Second Wave perspective. But as we all know technology has become more and more decentalized. and personalized.
Everyone now has their own Personal Digital Device. while the Internet is sprawled across the globe.When Toffler wrote his book in 1980, the PC was in its early stages. But the evolution of the new microchip-based technology certainly has fulfilled at least part of his prophecy.
Totalitarian countries struggle in vain to control the Internet. They are Second Wave ,and thus their centralization is no match for a highly nimble Third Wave technology.
A Tsunami for Global Institutions?
Currently, the European Union and other international institutions are struggling to contain a possible global financial meltdown by implementing new measures to help Greece avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt. Additionally, there are concerns about Italy's stability.
Fareed Zakaria, writing in the Washington Post ( October 13, 2011) , observed that the crisis is connected to poor economic growth. Western economies are affected by the new technology that , he says, has "allowed companies to do more with fewer people " while globaization has "allowed manufacturing and services to locate across the world".
Will these economies drown in an economic tsunami because the human and commercial capital necessary to sustain a proper level of growth have been washed away by the Third Wave and fled to less developed countries ?
"Localized" labor-intensive industrialized Second Wave markets rooted within national borders have been transformed by the Third Wave economics that allow capital and jobs to be removed to cheaper wage markets.
Or simply abolished: online applications allow companies to use fewer marketing and customer support staff to sell products and process payments. All this can be done online by the customer. Likewise self-service retail outlets allow customers to now check out their items without a sales person. Manufacturing is becoming more and more automated everyday thus risking the future of human workers and their jobs.
.Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, authors of Race Against the Machine, argue in their e-book that technological advancements are outpacing the human worker.Computers and software, the authors say, are giving machines capabilities that were once thought to be distinctively human, like understanding speech., Thus automation is rapidly moving beyond factories to jobs in call centers, marketing and sales — parts of the services sector, which provides most jobs in the economy.Nor is the data automation industry creating
Will there be a "Fouth Wave?'
The First Wave was a pre-urban civilization.. Is it a future trend to return to this First Wave- or perhaps a Fourth Wave? We will explore this in future essays.
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Thomas White - Thomas White’s poetry, essays, and fiction have been widely published in both online and print journals in Canada, United States, ...
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